Côte d'Ivoire et Afrique occidentale
Transport aérien africain : la bataille du ciel, un mal nécessaire ?
Royal-Air-Maroc_CN-RGA_Boeing_747-1

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Un an après le lancement officiel de l’Open Sky africain, le marché du transport aérien piétine encore. Révolutionnaire pour le tourisme africain, le ciel unique devrait toutefois accoucher d’une guerre des prix dont seules quelques rares compagnies élues sortiraient indemnes.

Il y a encore quelques années, investir dans le transport aérien en Afrique était vu comme une entreprise risquée. Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou, le fondateur de la compagnie easyJet, l’a appris à ses dépens : l’aventure FastJet, fondée en 2012 en Tanzanie par le milliardaire gréco-britannique, n’a semble-t-il pas rencontré le succès escompté.

En sept ans, le paysage s’est pourtant métamorphosé. Le nombre de passagers a crû de 5 % tous les ans. Et la perspective du marché unique du transport aérien africain (MUTAA) présume d’une nouvelle l’ère pour l’Afrique. L’organisation internationale de l’aérien IATA estime ainsi qu’au cours des vingt prochaines années, l’accord de libéralisation du ciel africain devrait se traduire par une révolution de l’offre sur le continent. Selon les estimations, le nombre de passagers devrait progresser de 173 %, pour atteindre 303 millions en 2035. L’avionneur Boeing prévoit dans le même temps un doublement du parc aérien : jusqu’à 1450 avions en vol au-dessus du continent. 

Autant de nouvelles destinations qui s’ouvrent pour les Africains, et d’occasions de multiplier les accords commerciaux entre les pays du continent. Sur l’emploi, les chiffres aussi donnent le tournis : près de 300 000 emplois directs et plus de deux millions emplois indirects. 12 des principaux pays africains pourraient augmenter leur PIB collectif de 1,3 milliard de dollars et attirer 4,9 millions de nouveaux voyageurs.

Deux champions africains se positionnent pour capter les flux issus du MUTAA : Ethiopian Airlines d’une part, leader en Afrique et décisive sur le segment Europe – Afrique de l’Ouest – Asie grâce à sa base d’Addis Abeba, et Royal Air Maroc, d’autre part. Cette dernière multiplie les annonces depuis un an : réception de son premier Boeing 737 MAX, ouverture d’une base à Laâyoune en juin, et renforcement de la liaison Casablanca – Boston, sa septième ligne en direction des États-Unis. Tirant parti de sa position géographique, la « RAM » se pose en compagnie carrefour, forte de sa présence au sein de l’alliance OneWorld et d’une clientèle africaine qui compte pour un tiers de ses passagers. 

Ces deux transporteurs devraient sans le moindre doute possible bénéficier de l’explosion du secteur aérien qui viendra avec la mise en place des principes de la décision de Yamoussoukro, l’autre nom du MUTAA. On peut difficilement en dire autant pour les autres, qui pourraient se retrouver secoués par ce changement de paradigme.

Une bataille du ciel qui s’annonce brutale

En effet, l’histoire du transport aérien a montré que la libéralisation du ciel, si elle se fait souvent au profit des consommateurs, ne se fait pas sans heurts. Le dernier exemple de libéralisation connue, celui de l’Europe, a ainsi révolutionné les vols intra-européens en donnant naissance à des champions du low-cost comme Ryanair ou easyJet. Mais il a aussi fortement nui à la rentabilité des compagnies traditionnelles comme Air France, British Airways, Lufthansa ou Iberia… au point de remettre en question leur existence même

L’Afrique connaîtra-t-elle un destin similaire ? Il est permis de le croire. Certes, de nombreuses compagnies se positionnent déjà pour capter les flux intra-africains : South African Airways, Kenya Airways et Air Côte d’Ivoire (toutes les deux soutenues par Air France), ou encore des jeunes challengers comme Air Sénégal ou Air Algérie. 

Toutefois, l’hégémonie du couple RAM-Ethiopian Airlines, la diversification de leurs lignes et la présence de bases fortes laissent peu de doute sur le fait que les deux transporteurs devraient balayer la concurrence. Si tant est que le gouvernement marocain accepte de laisser les coudées franches à son champion.

Car malgré l’avantage de la RAM sur ses concurrentes, le Maroc refuse toujours de signer le MUTAA, craignant probablement la guerre des prix qui suivra. Et il n’est pas le seul à avoir les pieds froids : sur les 55 pays que comptent l’Union Africaine, seul 25 ont signé l’accord – laissant l’Afrique dans un statu quo préjudiciable.

Alors que la bataille du ciel africain s’annonce inéluctable, cette pusillanimité ne semble pas à la hauteur des enjeux. Aux États-Unis comme en Europe, la libéralisation du ciel a été le préambule fondamental à l’explosion d’un marché économique commun. Et c’est seulement au prix de ce mal nécessaire qu’une Afrique plus moderne pourra voir le jour.

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